TEXTE Environmental Impacts of Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems for Reduction of SOx on Ships — Analysis of status quo 
Report compiled within the framework of the project ImpEx 
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Forecast of EGCS application and alternative compliant 
solutions 
The database from DNV GL (2020) presents the number of ships EGCS-fitted for the coming 
years. Figure 5 shows 4,379 ships EGCS-fitted by 2023. Clarksons Research (2019) counted up to 
4,000 ships (including further additions pending) and estimated that by end 2020 up to 15% of 
the world fleet by tonnage capacity will be EGCS-fitted. 
Figure 5: Total number of ships with EGCS (in operation and on-order) 
4500 
"261 A377 A279 
1000 
3500 
2000 
)500 
1000 
‚500 
‚00 
00 
2 
[= 
7 
12 
22 
ACC 
N 
A &d VD SD vr V DD ED © MM VS SD HD 
SS‘ HM SS NN NO NN ON ON ON NN && N NN SV 
SS SNEPN PN PN NE PNX PN PX NX NS 
SV VS 
DM DO SD 
Source: DNV GL (2020), retrieved on 07/05/2020 from https://afi.dnvgl.com/. 
Those short-term prognoses which are based on confirmed orders, could present modifications 
due to the current COVID-19 pandemic and low fuel oil prices in the market. These factors have 
led to postponement and cancellation of EGCS installations. First, the outbreak of the virus in 
China and the Asiatic region stopped the work in the shipyards, where most of the installation 
works were scheduled. Secondly, the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has also 
affected the shipping industry. As a response, the shipping companies have taken several 
measures including the postponement or cancellation of EGCS installations. In addition to that, 
or perhaps one reason to support that decision is the current low cost gap between (non- 
compliant) residual fuels and (compliant) low-sulphur fuels, originated by the current market 
crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. That cost gap is a determining factor on the economic 
viability for the adoption of EGCS. A gap above 200 USD per ton might ensure a fast return of 
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