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FIGURE2 | Land subsidence [m] relative to 1995-2014 until 2100. (a) Vertical land motion from IPCC ‘vlm’ contribution to sea level change 
(scenario SSP5-8.5, median), (b) negative land uplift from NKG2016LU and (c) difference between both sources (NKG2016LU_lev-IPCC) including 
location of sample stations along the coast (nearest grid point close to station coordinates). 
the Norwegian Sea, the difference between these two datasets 
(Figure 2c) is most obvious where NKG suggests a much lower 
uplift than IPCC. Furthermore, NKG calculates a higher VLM 
over Scandinavia (up to 200mm more than IPCC by 2100). This 
is likely because the IPCC field inherits spatial noise and in- 
terpolation artefacts from the VLM component based on tide- 
gauge trends, which become particularly pronounced in regions 
with steep GIA-related uplift gradients or sparse observations. 
NKG2016LU, in contrast, provides a physically consistent, re- 
gionally calibrated GIA surface that maintains a smooth and 
coherent transition from land to ocean. 
TABLE1 | Difference between DASNordicSLR and IPCC AR6 sea 
level change after implementation of NKG2016LU_lev uplift for 2100 
relative to 1995-2014 (scenario SSP5-8.5, median) for sample stations 
as shown in (Figure 2c). Bold numbers indicate significant differences 
outside the confidence interval of 5% to 95% from IPCC AR6. 
Absolute Relative 
Station name diff (mm) Diff (%) 
CUXHAVEN_2 0.0 . 
WARNEMUNDE_2 1.8 
FUÜURUOGRUND 10.2 
LANDSORT —38.0 
TROMSO —0.5 
HELSINKI 
HOEK_VAN_HOLLAND 
BERGEN 
KUNGSVIK 
BUGRINO 
The resulting differences in sea level rise by 2100 (median, 
SSP5-8.5 scenario) after implementing the new VLM range 
from -200mm to +500mm over the whole area. When in- 
spected along the coast for sample stations (see locations in 
Figure 2c and values in Table 1) the differences range from 
-121mm in Bugrino to +26mm in Hoek van Holland. At 
the German coast, the changes are slightly lower (-0.3mm at 
Cuxhaven and +15mm in Warnemunde) due to the smaller 
influence of VLM in this area. Figure 3 shows the time series 
of sea level change for three sample stations including their 
likely range. 
Al 
Geoscience Data Journal, 2026