ARCTIC, ANTARCTIC, AND ALPINE RESEARCH 
2023, VOL. 55, NO. 1, 2269689 
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2023.2269689 
Taylor & Francis 
Taylor & Francis Group 
3 OPEN ACCESS !%® Check for updates‘ 
öl 
AR 
; 
Mi 
Effects of storms on fisheries and aquaculture: An Icelandic case study on climate 
change adaptation 
Nicole Sühring®, Catherine Chambers@*”, Torben Koenigk@°, Tim Kruschkeß3**, Niels Einarsson- 
and A. E. J. Ogilvie@*“ 
’Stefansson Arctic Institute, Akureyri, Iceland; "University Centre of the Westfjords, Isafjöröur, Iceland; ‘Swedish Meteorological and 
Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; “Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Hamburg, Germany; “Institute of Arctic and 
Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA 
ABSTRACT 
Climate change research on fisheries is often focused on changes in species abundance and 
distribution, yet the impacts of severe weather events are also important. Climate models indicate 
that storm frequency and intensity may increase in the North Atlantic; however, uncertainties 
‚emain and consequences in Iceland are not well studied. This research represents a first attempt 
to understand local to regional implications of storminess on Icelandic fisheries industries. Using an 
nterdisciplinary approach, the analysis (1) provides regional future wind speed projections in 
celand and surroundings under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3-7.0 scenario, (2) 
documents current local experiences using exploratory interviews with various stakeholders in 
isheries and aquaculture, and (3) explores research priorities for understanding climate-change 
adaptations in coastal communities. Projections show that whereas areas of the west, south, and 
aast of Iceland may experience fewer storm days, the region north/northeast of Iceland features an 
ncrease in storm days. Potential adaptations include a flexible management system that does not 
aunish fishers for lost time due to bad weather, cooperative market arrangements among sectors, 
and job security considerations for fishers and fish processing workers. Future projections are 
needed for other variables such as precipitation, and future socioeconomic studies should address 
the predictions and impacts of storminess. 
HIGHLIGHTS 
» Using a state-of-the-art climate model, this study suggests that wind speed will increase north of 
celand, whereas the south will be calmer in the future under the SSP3-7.0 emission scenario. 
mpacts of storm events on fisheries including infrastructure damage, personal safety, land- 
Jased transportation disruptions, or temporary income losses can have disproportionate 
mpacts on small-scale operations and rural communities. 
-uture climate model research should focus on assessing changes in the most extreme storms, 
wind direction, and precipitation over land, as well as evaluating the robustness of results across 
different climate models. 
-uture socioeconomic adaptation research should focus on the combined impacts of fish stock 
novements and changing weather conditions, and regional variations across Iceland as some 
areas are projected to be calmer. 
ARTICLE HISTORY 
Zeceived 20 January 2023 
Revised 8 September 2023 
Accepted 8 October 2023 
KEYWORDS 
Aquaculture; climate change 
adaptation; coastal 
communities; extreme storm 
avents; fisheries; North 
Atlantic 
Introduction 
Reguero 2021). Much of the research on negative impacts 
of climate change on marine systems is focused on 
changes of species abundance, distribution, and life cycles 
due to changes in sea-ice coverage, ocean acidification, 
and/or changing sea surface temperatures (Heck, Beck, 
and Reguero 2021). These projected biological changes 
aave clear implications for human social and economic 
systems that are reliant on marine resources (Johnson and 
A growing number of studies show that marine social- 
ecological systems around the world face an increasing 
aumber of threats due to climate change, such as rising 
ocean temperatures, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, 
and increasing storm and extreme weather events (Chang 
et al. 2013; Hobday et al. 2016; Macusi et al. 2020; Turner, 
McConney, and Monnereau 2020; Heck, Beck, and 
CONTACT Catherine Chambers © cat@uw.is © University Centre of the Westfjords, Suöurgata 12, 400, [safjöröur, Iceland. 
9 Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2023.2269689. 
9 2023 The Author(s). Published with license by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. 
"his is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, 
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted 
Manuscript in a repository bv the author(s) or with their consent.