distinction is noteworthy as it illustrates that while the OGVs in
Danish water exhibited higher absolute non-compliance rates, the
level of the FSC exceedances was higher for the OGVs in Belgian
waters.
Spatial sulfur compliance trends. The temporal analyses reveal
notable disparities in non-compliance rates between ?xed stations
(1.0%), typically situated near ports, and airborne measurements
(5.3%), typically conducted in the territorial waters (12 nm) and
the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) (200 nm) (Fig. 1). Similar
patterns were observed for the other cutoff levels (Supplementary
Fig. 3A, B). These differences in non-compliance rates between
airborne measurements and ?xed stations were statistically sig-
ni?cant for all cutoff levels (P < 0.001).
Although based on the same methodology (Supplementary
Methods 1), ?xed and airborne measurements use different
operational methods, which can partly explain the differing non-
compliance rates. Airborne platforms try to avoid redundant
measurements of the same OGVs, while ?xed stations take a non-
selective approach and measure all passing OGVs. This may
therefore lead to a slight underestimation of the determined non-
compliance rate by ?xed stations if compliant OGVs like
compliant ro-ro ferries are overrepresented in these datasets.
Furthermore, aerial remote measurements may tend to focus on
OGVs with a higher risk pro?le, and, to some extent, avoid OGVs
operating only in the SECA, or smaller coasters, i.e., small to
medium-sized cargo OGVs designed for transportation along
coastlines or in relatively calm waters. This may overestimate the
overall non-compliance rate by airborne measurements. Never-
theless, these ?ndings indicate a clear pattern of adaptive non-
compliant behavior among OGVs.
A comparison of non-compliance trends between the various
measurement campaigns revealed a high consistency (Supple-
mentary Tables 3 and 4). It was observed that locations in closer
proximity to the SECA border have higher non-compliance rates.
Measurements taken at the border by the MUMM and Chalmers
University27 demonstrated an average non-compliance rate of
approximately 30%. When plotting the non-compliance data
against the distance from the border, it followed an exponential
decreasing curve, with a high goodness of ?t (Fig. 2A). In order to
mitigate the in?uence of the high compliance rate in ports, the
combined airborne data from RPAS, helicopter, and aircraft was
utilized (Fig. 2B). In this case, an excellent goodness of ?t was also
observed. Given the signi?cant disparity between non-compliance
rates observed in ports compared to those at sea, the relationship
between compliance and the distance from port was determined
(Fig. 2C). Similar patterns were observed for the other FSC cutoff
levels (Supplementary Fig. 4A–C). The ?tting constants and
correlation factors (R?) of the curve ?ttings for all cutoff levels are
provided in Supplementary Tables 5 and 6.
This spatial analysis provided valuable insights into the
distribution of non-compliance risks along the SECA border.
Notably, the analysis revealed that the highest risk for non-
compliance was observed within the ?rst 300–450 km from the
SECA border. The results indicate that compliance rates at sea,
beyond a distance of 900 km, were 1.4% for the 0.15% FSC cutoff
level. Furthermore, these ?ndings indicate that non-compliance
begins to notably increase at approximately 70–90 km from the
port. At a distance of 180 km from the port, the proximity to the
port stops in?uencing non-compliance behavior. It must be
acknowledged that the number of points for these ?ttings was, in
particular for the non-compliance in function of the distance
from the port, very low. To obtain a better understanding of these
relationships it is recommended that a dedicated more in-depth
analysis based on the raw measurement data is conducted.
Upon comparing the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, noticeable
differences in non-compliance rates were observed. In general,
the Baltic Sea exhibited higher non-compliance rates, with an
overall non-compliance rate of 2.2%, compared to 1.3% for the
North Sea for the 0.15% FSC cutoff level (Fig. 2D). Similarly for
the other cutoff levels the Baltic Sea demonstrated higher non-
compliance rates. Importantly, for all cutoff levels, the differences
were determined to be statistically signi?cant (P < 0.001). When
comparing the airborne results, for the North Sea a higher non-
compliance rate is observed for the 0.15% FSC and the 0.20% FSC
cutoff levels. However, the Baltic Sea showed a higher non-
compliance rate for the 0.13% cutoff level. This indicates that
non-compliant OGVs at sea in the North Sea tend to have higher
absolute FSC levels compared to those in the Baltic Sea, whereas
in the Baltic Sea, low FSC exceedances appear to occur more
often.
NOx emission control area. For this study, it was not feasible to
compare the Belgian NOx non-compliance data with other
Fig. 1 FSC non-compliance for remote monitoring locations in the SECA. Non-compliance rates for the different monitoring locations for the 0.15% FSC
cutoff level. Measurements with ?xed wing aircraft are displayed with full lines and diamond icons, measurements using RPAS and helicopters have full
lines and circle icons, ?xed sniffer measurements are displayed with dotted line and triangular icons.
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7 ARTICLE
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | (2023) 4:391 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7 | www.nature.com/commsenv 3