W ith a death toll of up to 8.8 million premature deathsper year, anthropogenic air pollution has been iden-ti?ed as the global leading cause of death1,2. Air pol-
lution from ocean-going vessels (OGVs) is one of the main
sources of air pollution. So?ev et al. have calculated that up to
800,000 of these premature deaths can be attributed to OGVs3.
These are mainly caused by ?ne particulate matter known as
PM2.5.This PM2.5 can be generated during the combustion pro-
cess; however, a substantial amount of secondary PM2.5 is also
formed from other pollutants like sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen
oxides (NOx) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)3–7. Air
pollutants from OGVs—SOx, NOx, Ozone (O3) and VOCs—also
have direct adverse effects on human health and the environment.
In 2014, OGVs were responsible for 13% and 14% of global
anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx, respectively8–13.
The regulations put in place to reduce emissions from OGVs
fall under the MARPOL Convention of the IMO14. Annex VI of
the revised MARPOL Convention aims for a gradual decrease of
global air pollution by SOx and NOx from OGVs15 (Supple-
mentary Notes 1). In addition, MARPOL Annex VI introduced
ECAs with tighter emissions standards (Supplementary
Fig. 1A–C) and is rati?ed by 105 countries representing 96.81% of
the gross tonnage of the world merchant ?eet16–20.
According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO),
thanks to the establishment of Emission Control Areas (ECAs)
and the stricter SO2 emission limits in 2015, SO2 emissions fell by
28.6% between 2014 and 2017, while NOx reported a 1.2%
increase over the same period12. So?ev et al. have estimated that
before the strengthening of the global sulfur emission regulations
for OGVs in 2020, SO2 and sulfur-related particles in OGV
emissions were responsible for up to 403,300 premature deaths a
year and 14 million cases of childhood asthma3. With the
introduction of global emission regulations for OGVs, it was
estimated that 263,300 premature deaths (?33%) and 7.6 million
cases of childhood asthma (?54%) could be avoided3,4. When
concerning NOx, the health bene?ts of introducing NOx
emission regulations are not immediately observed as new
emission abatement technology needs to be introduced to be
compliant with the de?ned emission limits of the regulations. The
compliance rate is therefore linked to the scrapping rate, i.e., the
rate at which old OGVs are scrapped and replaced by new OGVs
as well as the engine overhaul rate, i.e., the rate at which old
engines are replaced by new engines with lower emission limits9.
Zhang et al. have estimated that the application of the latest
introduced Tier III NOx emission standards is the most advan-
tageous approach to further reduce the detrimental impact of
shipping on human health, as it would reduce up to 36,400
premature deaths per year4. The recently completed EU-funded
Shipping Contributions to Inland Pollution Push for the Enfor-
cement of Regulations (SCIPPER) project also recommended the
establishment of further NOx Emission Control Areas
(NECAs)21. It should be highlighted that in order to attain the
afore-mentioned health bene?ts a high compliance rate of
international emission standards for OGVs needs to be reached.
Despite the fact that the abovementioned publications pro-
jected important health bene?ts from the implementation of
international maritime emission regulations and that emissions
models predict a decrease in air pollution from shipping22,23,
there still remains a research gap regarding the effectiveness of
the established international regulations in reducing real-world
emissions from OGVs in the wider ECAs. At the national level,
Van Roy et al. showed varying results of the success of interna-
tional regulations to improve air quality in Belgium24.
The main objective of this article is therefore to examine the
effects of the implementation of the European ECAs and other
international maritime regulations in the wider North Sea and the
Baltic Sea on OGVs’ emissions. This is accomplished in a three-
step approach. As a ?rst step, the effects of international emis-
sions regulations in the Bonn Agreement (BA) area (North Sea
and North-East Atlantic area) (Supplementary Fig. 2) are exam-
ined. This was done by analyzing compliance rates based on more
than 100,000 remote OGV emission measurements (Supple-
mentary Table 2) collected by the BA Contracting Parties (CPs)
using in-situ air quality (sniffer) sensors (Supplementary Meth-
ods 1). In the second step, data on (1) emission violations and
penalties for the BA; and (2) overall port inspection results for the
entire EU were examined. In the third step, satellite data for the
years 2018–2022 was used to assess any changes in the atmo-
spheric concentrations of SO2 and NO2 in the European ECAs.
The presented work reveals that international regulations on fuel
sulfur content (FSC) are well enforced by the BA Parties and by
extension by the entire EU. Compliance rates are well under
control and the results of this study show that SO2 non-
compliance has reduced substantially since the introduction of
the global sulfur cap. The number of recorded infringements in
BA and EU ports follows a similar trend. Based on satellite data it
was found that atmospheric SO2 concentrations inside the ECA
have decreased since the introduction of the global sulfur cap. In
contrast, this article demonstrates that NOx emission regulations
are less successful, with NOx emissions from OGVs even
increasing.
Results
Regionwide analysis of the remote monitoring data. Non-
compliance data from all remote measurement stations and
deployments was collected based on three different cutoff levels.
This allows the assessment of the severity of the non-compliance
behavior in addition to a temporal and spatial non-compliance
trend analysis. For the main results, the 0.15% FSC cutoff level
was used.
Temporal sulfur compliance trends. A decreasing trend in FSC
non-compliance rates was observed across all measurement
locations within the European Sulfur Emission Control Area
(SECA) regions. The non-compliance rate decreased from 7.1 to
0.7%, with an average non-compliance rate of 1.5% when a 0.15%
FSC cutoff level is used (Fig. 1). The pattern is similar for the
other cutoff levels (Supplementary Fig. 3A, B). Following the
implementation of the global sulfur cap in 2020, the non-
compliance rates reached their lowest point, with an average non-
compliance rate of 0.6%. It is important to acknowledge that the
implementation of the sulfur cap in 2020 coincided with the
global COVID-19 pandemic, which led to reduced fuel prices25,26.
Additionally, several monitoring operations observed a slight
increase in non-compliance, starting in 2022. This increase can be
attributed to the rise in marine fuel prices resulting from the
Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent global price
in?ation26.
Among the different remote measurement operations applied
by the SECA countries, the French measurements with the
remote piloted airborne systems (RPAS) exhibited the highest
non-compliance rates. The average non-compliance rate was
9.4% and therefore substantially higher than the non-compliance
observed by the other remote measurement operations, which
varied between 0.1 and 3.7% for the same period. When
considering the remote monitoring locations that conducted
measurements throughout the entire 2015–2022 period, the
Belgian airborne measurements recorded the highest non-
compliance rate for the 0.15% FSC cutoff level (5.2%). However,
the Danish helicopter measurements displayed the highest non-
compliance rate for the 0.13% FSC cutoff level (8.5%). This
ARTICLE COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7
2 COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT | (2023) 4:391 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01050-7 | www.nature.com/commsenv