MERCATOR OCEAN JOURNA: 
SEPTEMBER 2021 
3. POST 2021 PERSDECTIVES 
Med-MFC post 2021 perspectives include several major 
system upgrades for all 3 components. In particular the 
physical system future improvements will account for: 
-a continuous physical model development toward a 
fully coupled physics-wave system will be performed, 
- a different vertical mixing scheme will be used, and 
- both the NEMO and WWIII models will be updated to 
the latest available versions. 
The system will Include a better representation of rivers in 
coastal areas using daily river inflow (where available) and 
river discharge. An ensemble ocean forecasting will be 
implemented by perturbing the atmospheric forcing and 
nitial conditions. Moreover, the data assimilation scheme 
and the assimilation of gliders will be improved. 
Additionally, new and higher resolution observations will 
be assimilated. A new physical reanalysis will be delivered 
including tides, updated boundary conditions in the Atlantic 
and Dardanelles straits and higher resolution atmospheric 
foreing. 
Future upgrades of the BFM system will target the accuracy 
of phytoplankton and zooplankton compartments to 
provide indicators of plankton community diversity, and 
energy and matter pathways across the ecosystem. 
Parameterization of silicon and oxygen cycles and 
integration of optics and biogeochemistry are other 
important drivers of the future developments of the BFM 
models. Future demands for high quality biogeochemical 
products in coastal areas require better physical coastaı 
dynamics, integration of high frequency land forcing data 
and specific skill performance assessment. 
In a longer-term perspective the inclusion of benthic- 
pelagic interactions, land-ocean coupling, high-resolution 
modelling, integration of biogeochemistry with pollutant 
modelling and dedicated data assimilation for coastal 
areas are further drivers to improve reliability anc 
capability of biogeochemical operational products. 
Regarding assimilation, new developments will focus on 
adding new in situ and satellite data and evolving toward 
hybrid or ensemble 3Dvar methods and joint physical- 
biogeochemical schemes. 
One of the main drivers for the future evolution of the Med- 
Waves system is to increase the accuracy of the wave 
analyses and 5-10 days forecasts while providing additiona, 
products to end-users. This can be achieved by: 
- Improving the wind forcing used to drive the WAM model, 
- assimilating additional satellite (wave spectrum from 
SAR) or in situ wave measurements, 
-improving the WAM physics according to recent 
developments of relevant projects (i.e., WAVEFLOW). 
Extreme waves forecasting is another path of future 
avolution of the system that can be achieved by 
implementing recent developments of LATEMAR CMEMS 
service evolution project (Benetazzo et al., 2020). Finally, the 
clear need to define and to define and provide uncertainty 
ior current wave predictions will be achieved through the 
development and operational implementation of a Wave 
Ensemble Predietion System.