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Full text: Modelling of marine dispersion and transfer of radionuclides accidentally released from land based facilities

70 prediction of water currents. Further research into this type of modelling for emergency preparedness and response purposes is therefore clearly required. It may be concluded that the dispersion models used in the Baltic Sea and Pacific Ocean radiological scenarios are effective tools, but results are sensitive to the hydrodynamic forcing in energetic regions characterized by strong current variability. Where possible, it is clear that local forecasts of marine circulation ought to be used for emergency modelling [78]. A multi-model approach, as described here and in other international modelling projects [79], may be valuable when environmental processes are complex. Through this approach, the predictions that obtain the greatest degree of consensus among modellers are made evident and the aspects that are subject to disagreement, and which ought therefore to be handled carefully, also become clear.
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