1234 Ocean Dynamics (2019) 69:1217–1237
The right panel of Fig. 10 shows the development
of the chlorophyll concentration profile in the Gulf of
Finland. Here, the Baltic Sea is rather shallow and the
profile is initially homogeneous, even though with rather
high concentrations of about 40 mg/m3. However, on the
28th of April, the profile becomes more variable with a
maximum concentration at the surface and a minimum at
around 16 m of depth. Afterwards, the profile jumps to
unrealistically high concentrations with a strong gradient
from below 13 m and very low chlorophyll at the bottom.
This gradient becomes even steeper in the following
analysis steps. The high concentrations of chlorophyll
are caused by high concentrations of flagellates, while
the concentrations of diatoms and cyanobacteria remain
low. The temperature increments by the data assimilation
between the 20th and 30th of April in the eastern Gulf
of Finland are always negative. The step-wise increase
of the flagellates (and hence chlorophyll) concentration
shows that the concentration is negatively correlated with
the temperature during this time period. Given the larger
assimilation effect with logarithmic concentrations, the
unrealistically high concentrations develop. Actually, this
effect is, to a lower extent, also visible in the experiment
STRONG-lin with actual concentrations when all fields of
the BGC model are updated by the data assimilation. In
STRONG-lin, the concentrations increase to 170 mg/m3 in
the eastern Gulf of Finland until the 15th of May (the top
right panel of Fig. 9 shows increased concentrations already
on the 1st of May). So, also in this case, the concentrations
are not fully realistic. However, they are much lower than
the concentrations obtained for STRONG-log and relax to
realistic concentration levels until end of May. Overall, the
assimilation in the experiment STRONG-lin behaves stable,
while in the case of STRONG-log, the concentrations grow
to extreme values and do not recover from this. However,
if the phytoplankton variables are excluded from the
assimilation update of STRONG-lin, their concentrations,
including those of the chlorophyll, remain realistic. Thus,
the cross-covariances between SST and the phytoplankton
fields are not sufficiently well estimated to generate a
realistic assimilation update at all times. This might be due
to the larger errors in the BGC model state so that the linear
regression between the SST and the concentrations fails.
8 Conclusion
In this study, the effect of assimilating satellite sea
surface temperature (SST) data into a coupled ocean-
biogeochemical model for the North and Baltic Seas has
been studied. The model uses nested model grids to better
represent the circulation in the German coastal areas. The
assimilation is successful in constraining physical ocean
fields, which has been assessed with in independent situ
data for surface temperature and salinity. With regard to
the biogeochemical (BGC) fields, both weakly and strongly
coupled data assimilations have been assessed. With the
weakly coupled assimilation, the assimilation only directly
updates the physical variables while the BGC fields react
dynamically on the changed physical conditions during the
following forecast phase. In this case, most BGC model
fields are only slightly changed, e.g. oxygen by up to 5 %.
The changes are particularly small in the North Sea. In
the Baltic Sea, the phytoplankton concentrations and the
chlorophyll and oxygen are slightly increased as a response
to the assimilation. The validation with in situ data did only
show small changes in the BGC fields. However, over the
full experiment from April to June 2012, the improvements
of oxygen concentrations were statistically significant.
In case of strongly coupled assimilation, both the
physical and BGC model fields are directly updated by the
data assimilation method. When the actual concentrations of
the BGC fields are used in the state vector, the assimilation
behaves stable. The changes to the BGC fields are, as
expected, larger than for the weakly coupled assimilation.
Quite high concentrations of phytoplankton and hence also
chlorophyll appeared in the eastern Gulf of Finland between
end of April and middle of May if all BGC fields are
updated by the assimilation. These high concentrations
disappeared until the end of May, and the assimilation
was overall stable. In contrast, the concentrations remained
realistic if the phytoplankton variables are excluded from
the assimilation update, so that only the nutrients and
oxygen are directly updated. Thus, only updating the
nutrients and oxygen when assimilating SST data appears to
be the recommended approach.
The strongly coupled assimilation was also performed
using the logarithm of BGC field concentrations, which is
the common choice when satellite chlorophyll observations
are assimilated. In this case, the assimilation becomes
unstable and local patches of unrealistically high or
low concentrations developed. This was mainly the case
in the Baltic Sea but also in the Norwegian Trench.
The development of the chlorophyll was examined at
two locations in the Baltic Sea, where particularly high
concentrations developed. Vertical profiles showed that
in the Gulf of Bothnia, the assimilation resulted in an
unrealistic subsurface maximum of chlorophyll around
40 m of depth, caused by high concentrations of diatoms
and flagellates. Ultimately, this maximum also influenced
the concentrations at the surface. In the shallow eastern Gulf
of Finland, the assimilation increased the concentrations of
flagellates, and hence chlorophyll over most of the upper
part of the water column. When a vertical localisation was
introduced, so that the assimilation increments are linearly
reduced as a function of depth until they are set to zero