1230 Ocean Dynamics (2019) 69:1217–1237
Several studies (e.g. Shulman et al. 2013; While et al.
2010; Yu et al. 2018) applied the assimilation of physical
observations so that in the BGC model only nutrients are
updated, instead of all BGC model fields. We performed
an alternative experiment in which the phytoplankton, zoo-
plankton and detritus were excluded from the assimilation
update. The assimilation influence on the RMSE and bias
with regard to the in situ data is summarised in the right
columns of Table 3. With this update variant, the RMSE of
nitrate, chlorophyll, oxygen and silicate are reduced in both
model grids by up to 2 % compared to the case when all
fields are updated. However, the amount of bias increased
in particular for oxygen and chlorophyll concentrations with
increases of 6 % and 29 %, respectively. Note that here
chlorophyll is particular because it is computed from the
phytoplankton, which is not directly updated by the data
assimilation in this experiment. In this experiment, the high
concentrations in the Gulf of Finland were not present.
6 Assimilation using logarithmic
concentrations
Above, the strongly coupled assimilation was applied in
the experiment STRONG-lin using the actual concentration
values of the BGC fields in the state vector. As discussed
in the introduction, chlorophyll concentrations can be
well described as log-normally distributed (Campbell
1995) which motivated many assimilation studies to
use the logarithm of the concentrations in the state
vector. The analysis step in the Kalman filter assumes
normal error distributions for optimality and taking the
logarithm of a log-normally distributed field results in
a normal distribution. Likewise, this transformation is
then applied to other BGC variables. While using actual
concentrations appears to be statistically inconsistent with
the assumptions of the Kalman filter, the studies using actual
concentrations in the assimilation were also successful.
This can be mainly explained by the fact that the
assimilation using actual concentrations still results in
corrections of the correct sign. However, the size of the
correction will be different because normal distribution
is symmetric while the log-normal distribution is skewed.
Using the logarithm will typically lead to a tendency
to more strongly increase concentrations. According to
our experience, using the logarithm also leads overall to
larger changes to the concentrations and a more sensitive
assimilation system in particular for non-observed parts of
the model fields like below the ocean surface. Due to this,
Pradhan et al. (2019) introduced a vertical localisation to
stabilise the assimilation update of subsurface variables.
In this vertical localisation, the assimilation increment
computed for the full-water column is linearly reduced
as a function of depth until it reaches zero at a prescribed
depth (100 m in Pradhan et al. 2019).
In Section 5.3, we found that the strongly coupled assim-
ilation applied with the actual concentrations improved the
oxygen concentrations, but the changes to the other BGC
fields were very small. Here, the strongly coupled assim-
ilation experiments of Section 5.3 are repeated using the
logarithm of the BGC model fields (experiment STRONG-
log) both with updating all fields of the BGC model and
only updating the nutrients and oxygen. Using the logarithm
of the concentrations in each ensemble state in the LESTKF,
the cross-covariances used to update the BGC model fields
are now computed from the logarithmic concentrations.
In the experiment STRONG-log, unrealistic concentra-
tions developed already during the second half of April. The
experiments were stopped at the end of May. Table 4 shows
very high RMSEs for the case that the assimilation is per-
formed over the full water column (The columns labelled
with ‘full vertical’ in Table 4). The behaviour was different
in the North Sea from the Baltic Sea. While in the Baltic
Sea extreme RMSEs occur for all BGC fields, the RMSEs
remain in a reasonable range for chlorophyll and silicate
in the North Sea. Here, mainly the north-eastern region
along the Norwegian Trench was affected by unrealistically
high concentrations (not shown). When the phytoplankton
variables were excluded from the DA update (‘nutrients
only’ in Table 4), the RMSEs were lower. However, in
the Baltic Sea, the concentrations of most of the fields
were still unrealistically high. In the North Sea, the silicate
showed unrealistically high concentrations in the region of
the Norwegian Trench while all other fields showed real-
istic concentrations. This is in contrast to the case when
all fields are updated which resulted in realistic silicate
concentrations.
When a vertical localisation is applied, the assimilation
can be stabilised. With a localisation depth of 10 m, the
concentrations in the North Sea become realistic if all BGC
fields are updated and the RMSEs are similar to those of
the FREE experiment (Table 4, compare columns 2 and 5).
However, for the Baltic Sea this localisation is not sufficient
and even with a vertical localisation depth of 5 m, the model
fields show unrealistic concentrations. If only the nutrients
are updated, only the nitrate concentrations in the Baltic Sea
show unrealistic values in the Gulf of Finland and to a lesser
extent in the southern Baltic Sea with vertical localisation.
The unrealistic concentrations are not directly obvious from
the value sof all RMSEs since the unrealistic concentrations
can be very localised, e.g. in the eastern Gulf of Finland.
Accordingly, they remain undetected if there is no in situ
data available at this location. This case is exemplified for
surface chlorophyll in Fig. 9. Here, the experiment WEAK
(top left) results in concentrations of up to about 9 mg/m3
in the Baltic Sea. In the experiment, STRONG-log without