Ocean Dynamics 
Ö Springer 
lllllllllll I 11IIIIIIIHIIII III mgi 
imi ni mu «■11111« mii i 
Il Ululili II llllllllll« II 
mu unii mi iniiiiiiinunii i 
11 ini n 11 mi ■limili 
01/05/14 01/08/14 
01/11/14 
Time 
01/02/15 01/05/15 [km] 
Tr2 
■ 
b 
Tr5 
• •• • 
• 
Tr6 
• • • > • 
Tr9 
• • • • 
• 
Ti21 
• mm 
• 
Ti22 
9 • 
• 
Ti23 
«MC 
• 
III . 
Tr20 
M» • 
Tri 9 
• no •• 
TM1 
< • mm 
Tr12 
•cc • 
Tr13 
M 1 1 • 
Tri 4 
«• • 
• METUK FOAM 
II . 
Tr15 
• FCOO_GETM 
Tr10 
(< è DMLDKSS 
• BSH CMOD 
Tr7 
:j •• «BSH 
HBM 
Tr4 
cm # • METNO_ROMS 
SMHI HIROMB NS03 
1 
Tri 
£< i i i 
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 
Displacement (km) 
Fig. 19 An example matrix showing the daily distance between the end are displayed for regions I, II, and III (see Fig. 7 for transect locations) for 
points of the PVD of the MME and those of FOAM_AMM in the North the time period 01.05.2014-31.05.2015 
Sea (a) and the temporal mean of final displacements for each forecast (b) 
transport data are mostly consistent at all transects. In the Tran 
sition Area and the Straits, Tr23-Tr29, category 1 appears with 
more than 80 %. Also, transects situated in the Norwegian 
Coastal Current show considerably consistent results (Tr2, 
Tr8, Tr9). High agreement between transport data also exists 
at Trll and Trl3 located in the English Channel. However, in 
the lower central North Sea, there are some transects, i.e., TrlO 
and Trl2, with higher uncertainties. TrlO is situated in a region 
where water masses from the North Atlantic, coming down the 
British coast, change toward the east, which is visible in the 
mean circulation of the North Sea (Backhaus 1989). High 
uncertainties in daily transport data across this transect might 
arise due to different model results of currents. In the Baltic 
Sea, there is less agreement at Tr31, Tr38, Tr39, and Tr42. 
Those short transects are located between the mainland and 
small islands, where different bathymetries might have a strong 
influence on the model results. 
The mean correlation between the forecasts (R mo d) and the 
mean correlation between the MME and the forecasts (Rmme) 
are calculated for the regions defined in Table 3 and displayed 
in Fig. 23. R mod is by definition always lower than R M aie, with 
most of the correlations ranging between 0.8 and 1.0. 
Tr29[HUIIIHIII lllllllllll llll III 
Tr30 
■inn 
in uni i mi mi ini ii ii i mu 11 mu in « 
Trillili 1111111111111111111 III 
T>36 III lllllllllllll 111«III llll II I llll IIIHIII III llll 
Tr41 11 II lili III HIHI III lllllllllll I I lllllllllllll 
IIIIIIHIIIIIIIIII lllllllllllll lini llllllllll II ■ 
llllllllll lllllllllll lllllllllllll II llll Ululili 
Tr49 
Ti50 
Tl52 
Tr43 
Tr44 
Tr45 
inn iiiiiiiiiiiii nil 
II11 III III IIH 
III lllllllllllll nil 
IIIHIII III llllllllll 
III 
mil ■■ iiiiiiii hi 
■mu iniiiiiiii iiiiiiii i 
lllll III11 llll III lllllllllllll 
iiiiiiiiii i ii i uni mu 
Tr46 UH IH HI II , I I I 
01/05/14 01/08/14 01/11/14 
Time 
I 
iiiii ini ni mu 
01/02/15 01/05/15 [km] 
8 
10 
12 
14 
16 
Displacement (km) 
Fig. 20 An example matrix showing the daily distance between the end 
points of the PVD of the MME and those of BSH_CMOD in the Baltic 
Sea (a) and the temporal mean of final displacements for each forecast (b) 
are displayed for regions V and VI (see Fig. 7 for transect locations) for 
the time period 01.05.2014-31.05.2015No full text available for this image