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van Bernem - Marine Sensitivity Aspects 
mentioned above, the contamination of the Jade-basin with oil-dispersion should be avoided. 
Thus: no necessity to use dispersants. 
Example 3 (Figure 5.2): 
Drift model forecast: a big part (up to 50 % in Figure 5.2) will enter the Jade-basin. The inter 
tidal of this Bay is predominantly of high sensitivity. Most of the flats are extremely muddy. 
Effective mechanical protection and cleaning is not possible. Endpoint: no effective removal 
possible. The threat of long lasting ecological damage, especially with regard to the adjacent 
saltmarshes is obvious. The threat of ecological damage by oil dispersion is estimated to be 
essentially minor and at least more uncertain. Thus the immediate use of dispersants is high 
ly recommended. 
Figure 5.2: The place of accident is depicted as black dot at 54°N/8°E. The drift of oil alone is calculated 
using 250 particles during a period of 10 years according to realistic weather conditions. The amount 
(number of particles) and frequency of oil contaminating the tidal channel “Jade” is indicated on the up 
per scale. The scale beneath indicates the proportion polluting the highly sensitive “Jade-Bay”. 
Conclusions 
The high variability of complex biological interactions causes large statistical and systemati 
cal errors which make it impossible to realistically reflect nature using complex simulation 
models. An adequate correspondence with reality, however, is a prerequisite when consider 
ing the tolerance of ecosystems to man made disturbances and countermeasures.