10 
Model output statistics MOS 
Table 1: Predictors referred to in the text. The total number of potential predictors used in the analyses is about 250. 
Acronym 
Description 
Source 
BrkLastStau 
Last surge observed at Borkum island gauge 
Tide gauge 
BrkLastStau-1 (-2, 
-3,...) 
Next to the last (third, fourth ... to the last) surge observed at the 
Borkum island gauge 
Tide gauge 
Last2DModel 
Last available DMO wind surge prediction for the Cuxhaven gauge 
2D model 
Pers2D korr-2 
Next to the last (third, fourth ... to the last) known initialisation error 
of the 2D model 
2D model and tide 
gauge 
WSt1 295**2 
Squared 295-degree-component of geostrophic 1000-hPa wind 
GFS model 
FU 000 
Geopotential 1000 hPa 
GFS model 
AbrLastStau 
Last wind surge observation Aberdeen 
Tide gauge 
DMO DD SE 
SE component of DMO 10m wind 
GFS model 
FI 0Cisotherm 
Geopotential of the 0 degree isothermal line 
GFS model 
4Lev LiftJx 
4-Level-Lifted index 
GFS model 
WStLS 295**2 
Squared 295-degree component of DMO 10m large-scale wind 
GFS model 
Rot 1000/FF 1000 
Eddy size in 1000 hPa divided by wind speed in 1000 hPa 
GFS model 
U 300 
U-component of geostrophic wind in 300 hPa 
GFS model 
Cos_2*Dag 
Cosine of the day in half-year 
Date